Malaysian palm oil futures rose nearly 1.5%, reaching around MYR 4,350 per tonne, marking their fifth consecutive day of gains. This surge was fueled by a strong rebound in global energy prices following the US imposing tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council forecasts that palm oil prices will range between MYR 4,250 and MYR 4,550 in Q1 2025, with demand expected to pick up from March, driven by the fasting month and Eid-ul-Fitr in April. However, the gains were limited due to weaker exports, with January shipments falling between 12.3% and 20.1%. Additionally, Indonesia reduced its crude palm oil reference price for February to USD 955.44 per metric ton, down from January’s USD 1,059.54, along with a decrease in the export tax to USD 124 per ton from USD 178 in the previous month.

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Soybean futures dropped to around $10.3 per bushel, nearing their lowest point since January 17, as fears mount over a potential trade war disrupting agricultural commodities. This decline follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China. In retaliation, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced new duties, while China, the largest market for US soybeans, has yet to reveal its response. Meanwhile, data showed a 36% year-on-year rise in Argentina’s grain export sales in January, supported by a temporary tax reduction on grain shipments introduced by the Argentine government to help the sector amid a drought and low prices.

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U.S. cotton futures dropped to around 65.9 cents per pound, marking their lowest point since August 2024. The decline was driven by a stronger dollar and speculative selling, with concerns over reduced demand adding further pressure, especially amid the possibility of trade tariffs from the new U.S. administration. Additionally, a mixed export sales report from the USDA showed U.S. cotton export sales for the week ending January 23 at 280,000 bales, a 20% drop from the previous week but a 20% increase compared to the average of the past four weeks.

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