Sugar futures surged past 19.5 cents per pound in February, hitting a near one-month high as adverse weather and currency fluctuations in key producing countries squeezed global supply. Droughts in Brazil and floods in Thailand have hurt sugar cane and beet crops, lowering yields and limiting exports. Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts a record 186.6 million tons of global sugar production for 2024/25, which may ease shortages but won’t fully offset supply constraints in India and Brazil. Additionally, a weaker Brazilian real has made sugar costlier for foreign buyers, reducing exports and increasing domestic supply. India’s sugar production is also expected to drop by 12% in 2025 due to lower sugarcane availability and increased ethanol diversion, further tightening global supply.

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